China's annual National People’s Congress (NPC) concluded on 12 March, setting a headline GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, with a commitment to strive for even better results in practice [1]. HSBC’s China macro team reviewed January–February 2026 data and the latest NPC outcomes, noting strong Fixed Asset Investment, resilient industrial production, and solid exports as key drivers supporting this target [1]. The government will maintain a proactive fiscal stance, with the central government absorbing a larger share of spending to address ongoing pressures from weakness in the property market, subdued price levels, and slower tax growth, as well as to kickstart the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) [1].
Fiscal support is being front-loaded, with accelerated bond issuance and reforms aimed at aligning local and central fiscal management [1]. Spending priorities are closely tied to long-term goals, including boosting domestic demand, advancing technology and industrial upgrading, and safeguarding livelihoods [1]. Major projects are set to be the principal catalyst for higher investment, with the 15th FYP outlining 109 projects across the “Six Networks” (water, power grids, computing power, communications, pipelines, and logistics), as well as transportation, consumption, education, and healthcare infrastructure [1].
These projects are anticipated to drive total investment to over RMB7 trillion this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission [1]. Government funding will play a significant supporting role, with investment projected to surpass RMB5 trillion in 2026 [1]. The focus on infrastructure-heavy investment plans, technological upgrading, and capital market reforms is expected to underpin China’s growth ambitions and provide stability amid external and domestic challenges [1].
No explicit market reactions or analyst opinions regarding the immediate impact on financial markets were mentioned in the source. Forward-looking statements center on the government’s commitment to proactive fiscal policy and major project investment as key drivers for achieving the growth target [1].
CONCLUSION
China has set a robust GDP growth target for 2026, supported by proactive fiscal policy and large-scale infrastructure investment under the 15th Five-Year Plan. The government’s focus on domestic demand, technology, and capital market reforms is expected to drive investment and economic stability. While market reactions were not discussed, the outlined policies signal a high-impact approach to sustaining growth amid ongoing challenges.