Eli Lilly's market share in India's weight-loss drug market dropped to 56% in March from 61% in February, according to industry intelligence provider Pharmarack, while Novo Nordisk's share remained steady at 25% [1]. This shift comes as Indian generic drugmakers launched 26 brands of semaglutide, the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, following the expiration of semaglutide's patent last month [1]. Despite expectations that Novo Nordisk would be most affected by the influx of generics, early data show Eli Lilly has experienced a larger decline in market share [1].
India's generic drug industry, which supplies around 20% of global generic medicines, has rapidly responded to the patent expiration, with 13 companies collectively launching 26 semaglutide brands for both weight loss and diabetes management [1]. The widening cost gap between semaglutide generics and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based brands, such as Mounjaro, has contributed to Eli Lilly's market share erosion. Mounjaro is priced at approximately 13,800 rupees ($148) per month, more than double the cost of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide drugs and ten times higher than the cheapest generics [1].
Analysts suggest that tirzepatide may become restricted to wealthier patients focused on weight loss, as it remains more effective but is significantly more expensive [1]. Demand for anti-obesity drugs in India is being driven by short-term users seeking rapid weight loss, often for special occasions, with affordability playing a major role in their choices [1]. Mumbai-based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil noted that lower-cost generic semaglutide has created "immediate noise, drawing patients and some prescribers towards affordability-driven choices," and that the shift is more pronounced among users seeking quick results [1].
The market implications are significant, as the entry of generics has quickly altered competitive dynamics, with Eli Lilly losing share and Novo Nordisk maintaining its position. Experts anticipate further erosion of Eli Lilly's sales as generics gain traction, especially among price-sensitive consumers [1].
CONCLUSION
The rapid introduction of generic semaglutide brands in India has led to a notable decline in Eli Lilly's market share, while Novo Nordisk has held steady. The affordability of generics is driving patient and prescriber choices, signaling ongoing pressure on premium-priced brands. Market dynamics are expected to continue shifting as generics expand their presence.