ING's Warren Patterson has revised higher the ICE Brent crude oil price forecasts due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace talks between the US and Iran [1]. The updated base case now assumes that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will only begin to gradually resume in May and June, remaining below pre-war levels for most of the year [1]. This adjustment reflects the fact that the previously anticipated resumption of flows in April did not occur [1].
As a result, ING now expects ICE Brent to average $104 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, up from the previous forecast of $96 per barrel [1]. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the forecast has been raised to $92 per barrel from $88 per barrel previously [1]. The report cites significant inventory drawdowns and a slow recovery towards pre-war flows as key factors supporting higher prices [1]. Additionally, low inventories and the need to restock both commercial and strategic reserves are expected to keep oil prices relatively well supported for the foreseeable future [1].
Patterson also notes that upside risks remain, particularly if a near full closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists through May, which could result in Brent prices finding a floor above $100 per barrel for the remainder of the year [1].
CONCLUSION
ING has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts, citing prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and low inventory levels. The outlook suggests continued support for oil prices, with potential for even higher prices if disruptions persist.