DBS' Senior Economist Radhika Rao, supported by data from Daisy Sharma, reports that India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), which is a slight decrease from the revised 8.0% growth recorded in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (3QFY26) [1]. The Nowcast model developed by DBS indicates that economic momentum is expected to soften further, with GDP growth projected to ease to 6.9% in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26/1QFY27) [1]. This anticipated moderation is attributed to weaker performance in industrial activity, freight traffic, and sales of farm tractors and commercial vehicles [1].
Looking ahead, DBS forecasts that India's GDP growth for the full calendar year 2026 will average 6.5%, a notable decline from the 7.8% growth seen in 2025 [1]. The report highlights that the Nowcast model serves as an estimate of real GDP growth based on currently available economic data and forecasts for the ongoing quarter [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond the DBS forecast are mentioned in the article. The focus remains on the data-driven outlook for India's economic growth trajectory in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
DBS' Nowcast model points to a moderation in India's GDP growth in 2026, with projections indicating a slowdown from the previous year's pace. The outlook suggests that softer industrial and commercial activity will weigh on economic expansion, signaling a more cautious growth environment ahead.