A surge in violence has gripped Colombia's southwestern region as the country approaches its May presidential election, with security emerging as a central concern for voters [1]. According to Colombia’s defense ministry, rebel groups have carried out 26 attacks using explosives and drones since Friday, including a deadly explosion on Saturday along the highway between Cali and Popayan that resulted in 21 fatalities as of Monday [1]. Authorities have attributed the lethal highway blast to the FARC-EMC, a group led by Nestor Vera, also known as Iván Mordisco, who refused to participate in the 2016 peace deal with the Colombian government [1].
Political risk analyst Sergio Guzmán noted that Mordisco’s faction may be seeking to demonstrate its operational capabilities and establish leverage with Colombia’s next government, potentially positioning itself for future negotiations [1]. The government, under President Gustavo Petro, has pursued a 'total peace' strategy, offering ceasefires to various armed groups in hopes of fostering negotiations [1]. However, analysts such as Javier Garay argue that this approach has backfired, as rebel groups have used the ceasefires to regroup and strengthen their control over local communities [1].
The FARC-EMC, particularly strong in the provinces of Cauca and Valle del Cauca, is reportedly fighting for control of lucrative drug trafficking routes and illegal gold mines [1]. While the group entered peace talks with the government in late 2023, the faction led by Mordisco abandoned negotiations in April 2024 and has since resumed hostilities [1]. The ongoing violence, including the recent spate of attacks, underscores the fragility of Colombia’s security situation and the challenges facing the government’s peace initiatives [1].
CONCLUSION
The escalation of violence in Colombia, marked by deadly attacks attributed to the FARC-EMC, has heightened security concerns ahead of the presidential election. Analysts suggest the government's peace strategy has been ineffective, with rebel groups exploiting ceasefires to consolidate power. The situation poses significant risks to stability and will likely influence voter priorities in the upcoming election.