The core event across the sources is the broad strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) amid heightened geopolitical tensions, shifting interest rate expectations, and anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has declined against the USD, with NZD/USD trading near 0.5870, down 0.54% on the day, as the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven demand and investor caution ahead of the US labor market data [1]. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% during its February meeting, with Governor Anna Breman signaling a cautious, accommodative stance, leading markets to delay expectations for a rate hike [1]. Rising energy costs, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Oil prices moving above $80 per barrel, have further pressured the NZD, given New Zealand's reliance on imported Oil [1].
Gold (XAU/USD) has also come under pressure, trading around $5,089 after reaching a daily high near $5,143, and is set for its first weekly loss in five weeks despite ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated geopolitical risks [2][3]. The conflict has entered its seventh day, with intensified US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and Iranian retaliatory attacks, but Gold has failed to attract significant safe-haven flows as the market focus shifts to the economic impact of rising Oil prices and the potential for higher global inflation [2]. Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that a halt in Gulf energy exports could push crude prices as high as $150 per barrel [2].
Interest rate expectations have shifted, with markets now pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in June, down from over 40% a week ago, and Deutsche Bank noting that total easing priced in for 2026 has dropped to around 40 basis points by December, the lowest this year [2]. BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Gold is being used as a liquidity tool, with investors selling holdings to cover margin or increase cash, and notes that the USD has gained 1.7% this week, its strongest performance in over a year [3]. The Oil–Gold ratio has shifted from nearly 80 barrels per ounce to 60 barrels, reflecting changing risk barometers [3].
Looking ahead, the US NFP report is a key focus, with economists expecting 59K jobs added in February, down from 130K in January, and the Unemployment Rate projected to remain at 4.3% [1][2]. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, supporting the USD and maintaining pressure on both NZD and Gold [1][2][3]. Technical analysis indicates a mildly bearish bias for Gold, with price slipping below key moving averages and the Relative Strength Index retreating toward the low-40s [2].
CONCLUSION
The US Dollar's broad strength, driven by risk aversion, shifting rate expectations, and anticipation of US labor data, has pressured both the New Zealand Dollar and Gold. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, safe-haven flows have favored the USD over Gold, while rising Oil prices and central bank policy stances add further headwinds. Market sentiment remains cautious, with the upcoming US jobs report poised to influence future moves.