Global FX Markets Steady as Middle East De-escalation and Central Bank Signals Shape Currency Moves

Neutral (0.1)Impact: Medium

Published on March 31, 2026 (4 hours ago) · By Vibe Trader

Currency markets showed mixed but generally steady performance during the Asian session on Tuesday, as geopolitical developments and central bank communications influenced trading across major pairs. The GBP/USD pair halted its five-day losing streak, trading near 1.3200, with technical analysis indicating a persistent bearish bias. The pair remains below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, and the 14-day RSI at 38 suggests fading downside momentum but insufficient buying pressure to reverse the corrective phase. Immediate support is seen at 1.3150, with further downside to 1.3010 if the channel breaks, while resistance lies at 1.3291 and 1.3412. The British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar among major currencies, with a 0.30% gain, but only marginally higher (0.08%) against the US Dollar [1].

The USD/JPY pair traded around 159.70-159.75, unchanged for the day, as traders weighed intervention risks and softer Tokyo inflation data. The pair remains above the 200-day EMA, keeping the broader uptrend intact, though the MACD has flattened and the RSI at 59 indicates positive but not overbought conditions. Key resistance is at 160.30 and 161.00, with support at 159.00 and 158.40. Intervention fears and hopes for Middle East de-escalation are capping gains, while softer Tokyo CPI (1.4% YoY in March, down from 1.5% in February) tempers expectations for imminent Bank of Japan tightening [2][3].

AUD/JPY steadied near 109.70 after losses, as the Australian Dollar was pressured by China's PMI data and the Japanese Yen found support from official warnings about intervention. China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March, beating expectations and marking the strongest reading since March last year, while Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved to 50.1. The RBA's March meeting minutes indicated likely further tightening, though timing remains uncertain. Tokyo CPI and core CPI both eased but remain below the BoJ's 2% target, with analysts expecting the slowdown to be temporary due to rising oil prices and a weak yen [3].

The USD/CHF pair edged lower to 0.7985, struggling to extend its five-day winning streak as the US Dollar faced selling pressure on reports that US President Trump is willing to pursue peace with Iran and avoid forceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This de-escalation improved global risk appetite, with S&P 500 futures up nearly 1% above 6,400. The Swiss Franc traded marginally higher against most peers, though the SNB has signaled readiness to intervene against excessive CHF appreciation [4].

AUD/USD consolidated around 0.6850, with the pair finding support near the 100-day SMA at 0.6820. The RBA's hawkish minutes and improved risk sentiment from Middle East de-escalation supported the AUD, but technical indicators (MACD below signal line, RSI near 36) point to fading bullish momentum. Key support is at 0.6800, with further downside to 0.6713 and 0.6586 if broken. Resistance is at 0.6892 and 0.7003, but the near-term bias remains mildly bearish as the pair trades below key retracement levels [5].

CONCLUSION

Currency markets are stabilizing as geopolitical risks in the Middle East ease and central banks maintain cautious stances. While technicals suggest ongoing corrective or bearish phases for several pairs, improved risk sentiment and central bank signals are providing selective support. Market impact is medium, with traders closely watching for further developments in both geopolitics and monetary policy.

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