Global aluminium production experienced a significant decline in April, primarily due to sharp output cuts in the Gulf region associated with the Iran conflict, according to ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey [1]. Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) revealed that average daily global primary aluminium output dropped to 197.4kt in April [1]. Total monthly production fell by 5.3% compared to the previous month and by 2% year-on-year, reaching 5.92 million tonnes [1].
China, the world's largest aluminium producer, saw its output decrease by 3% month-on-month to 3.7 million tonnes in April. However, year-to-date production in China remained slightly higher, up 1.6% year-on-year at 14.7 million tonnes [1]. The report notes that Chinese smelters have benefited from a diversion of alumina supply away from the Middle East, which has helped cushion the impact of regional disruptions and may support near-term Chinese output [1].
The Gulf region was particularly hard hit, with aluminium production plummeting 29% month-on-month and 34.6% year-on-year to 330kt, marking its lowest level since November 2013 [1]. The disruptions in the Gulf are directly linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which have pressured global supply [1].
No specific market price reactions or analyst forecasts for aluminium prices were mentioned in the article. However, the significant supply reductions in a major producing region suggest potential implications for global aluminium markets [1].
CONCLUSION
Global aluminium output saw a notable decline in April, driven by sharp production cuts in the Gulf region amid Iran-related disruptions. While China's output dipped month-on-month, it remains slightly higher year-on-year, supported by redirected alumina supplies. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf are exerting significant pressure on global aluminium supply.