Gold has edged higher, marking its third consecutive weekly gain and rising nearly 2% at the time of writing, supported by diplomatic optimism regarding Iran, sustained central-bank demand, and rising inflation expectations. However, ING strategists note that near-term price action remains highly volatile and headline-driven, with unresolved geopolitical risks and a fragile ceasefire keeping volatility elevated. Since the conflict began, gold has fallen around 10%, as macro headwinds such as higher real yields and a firmer US dollar have outweighed safe-haven demand. ING maintains a constructive longer-term outlook for gold, anchored in ongoing central bank buying and expectations that real rates will eventually become less restrictive [1].
Silver prices (XAG/USD) are consolidating around $75.00 during the European trading session, as investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March and the outcome of US-Iran negotiations scheduled in Pakistan over the weekend. Estimates suggest US headline CPI grew by 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.4%, while core CPI rose to 2.7% from 2.5% in February. The outcome of the US-Iran talks is seen as pivotal; a negative result could further boost global inflation expectations and prompt traders to raise hawkish Federal Reserve bets, which theoretically bodes poorly for non-yielding assets like silver. Technical analysis indicates silver is trading flat with a neutral near-term bias, consolidating rather than trending, with resistance at $77.00 and support at $71.37 [3].
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has trimmed gains, easing to 0.7060 as optimism about Iran’s truce ebbs. The AUD/USD pair remains more than 2.5% up on the week but has pulled back from three-week highs near 0.7090. Risk appetite waned as optimism about peace talks faded, with Iranian authorities refusing to participate until Israel ceases attacks on Lebanon and US President Donald Trump criticizing Tehran's handling of the Strait of Hormuz. Australian inflation data showed the highest monthly increase in history, attributed to the oil shock from the Iran conflict, strengthening the case for a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In the US, March CPI numbers are expected to show a jump to a 3.3% yearly rate, the highest in nearly two years, potentially supporting further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve [2][3].
According to [1], gold's longer-term outlook remains constructive despite near-term volatility, while [3] notes that silver's price action is neutral and dependent on upcoming US-Iran talks and US inflation data. Both metals are sensitive to geopolitical developments and inflation expectations, with central bank actions and monetary policy outlooks playing a key role.
CONCLUSION
Gold and silver prices are holding steady amid heightened volatility driven by unresolved geopolitical risks and anticipation of US-Iran ceasefire talks. Inflation data and central bank policy expectations are influencing market sentiment, with potential for further volatility depending on the outcome of negotiations and US CPI results. The longer-term outlook for gold remains positive, while silver's direction hinges on upcoming events and policy responses.