According to TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek, gold has been lagging behind the broader commodity basket, particularly oil and base metals, as ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persist without a finalized deal [1]. The analysts note that precious metals experienced a rally late last week following headlines that suggested an imminent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or deal between the US and Iran, but no agreement has yet been reached [1].
Despite this temporary rally, gold continues to underperform compared to oil and base metals, which are benefiting from elevated supply risks [1]. The analysts highlight that energy markets are expected to remain tight and supported at higher prices, even if a potential deal is reached, implying that the macroeconomic headwinds affecting precious metals are likely to persist [1].
Regarding Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) positioning, TD Securities expects that positions in gold will remain broadly stable unless there is a significant price movement, specifically an uptick toward $4750/oz or a downtick toward $4480/oz within the week [1]. This suggests that, absent a major price trigger, CTA flows are unlikely to provide additional upside for gold in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold is currently underperforming other commodities due to persistent macroeconomic headwinds and stable CTA positioning, according to TD Securities. Unless gold prices move significantly, market participants should not expect substantial changes in CTA-driven flows or a reversal of the current trend.