TD Securities' commodity strategy team has reiterated a bullish outlook on oil prices, attributing their stance to ongoing market tightness and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [1]. The team projects that the oil market will not normalize before December 2026, citing a persistent annual global crude oil deficit estimated at 1.6-2.0 million barrels per day for 2026, with 5-6 million barrels per day of production capacity currently offline [1].
The analysts highlight that petroleum product inventories remain alarmingly low, while demand continues to be robust, further supporting the case for elevated prices [1]. TD Securities expects Brent crude to trade $5-10 per barrel above the current $90 per barrel level over the next three months, indicating a strong possibility of Brent reaching triple-digit prices once again [1].
The firm positions its price forecasts at the upper end of the consensus range and underscores that upside risks for petroleum products are likely to persist due to the combination of low inventories and firm demand [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities anticipates that oil market tightness and geopolitical risks will keep Brent prices elevated, with a strong chance of surpassing $100 per barrel in the near term. The market is not expected to normalize before December 2026, suggesting continued volatility and upside risk for oil prices.