The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has maintained its policy rate at 3.75%, with market participants expecting no further changes through 2026, according to Societe Generale analysts [1]. The EUR/PLN currency pair is drifting lower towards 4.22, having reversed its previous spike that was driven by conflict in the Middle East [1]. Despite the stabilization in the currency, Polish government bonds continue to trade at yields significantly above pre-conflict levels, with the 10-year POLGB yield remaining about 65 basis points higher than the pre-conflict level of 4.92% [1].
Societe Generale notes that Governor Glapinski's upcoming press conference is anticipated to be uneventful unless he adopts an unexpectedly hawkish tone [1]. The steady policy stance and the lack of anticipated rate changes suggest a period of stability for Polish monetary policy, though the bond market has yet to fully recover from recent volatility [1].
Overall, the market reaction has been muted, with the EUR/PLN gradually returning to pre-conflict levels and no immediate shifts expected in monetary policy. The focus now turns to Governor Glapinski's remarks for any potential surprises, though expectations remain low for significant developments [1].
CONCLUSION
The National Bank of Poland's decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% has led to a gradual decline in EUR/PLN, reversing earlier conflict-driven gains. With markets pricing in no further rate changes through 2026 and bond yields still elevated, the outlook remains stable barring any unexpected hawkish signals from the NBP governor.