Oil prices remained stable at around USD 95 per barrel as markets focused on the potential for a ceasefire between the US and Iran and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Danske Bank's research team [1]. The bank noted that expectations for a normalization of oil supply are supporting the current price levels, rather than driving new gains [1].
Despite a shipping blockade that has caused nine ships to turn around in the Strait of Hormuz and resulted in subdued traffic compared to pre-war levels, optimism persists regarding the resumption of US-Iran talks, which may take place in Pakistan this weekend, although no specific date has been set [1]. The Trump administration expressed optimism about resolving the conflict, with President Trump stating in a Foxnews interview that the Iran war is 'almost over' [1].
In the broader Middle East context, Israel's cabinet is discussing a potential ceasefire deal with Lebanon, which could be announced soon according to Lebanese officials [1]. The resolution of the Lebanon conflict is viewed as significant for advancing peace talks between the US and Iran. However, uncertainty remains as Hezbollah is not participating in the talks, leaving questions about the group's compliance with any ceasefire agreement [1].
CONCLUSION
Oil prices are being supported by hopes for a ceasefire and normalization of supply, with markets reacting positively to the prospect of resumed US-Iran talks and potential conflict resolution in the region. However, ongoing uncertainties, such as the participation of key groups like Hezbollah, continue to pose risks to a sustained recovery in oil supply and prices.