WTI crude oil surged over 6% on Thursday, breaking through $80 per barrel for the first time since June 2024 and marking one of the sharpest rallies in recent years [1]. The price has increased approximately 19% since strikes in Iran began on Saturday, accelerating from around $67 to a session high just above $80 [1]. The daily trading pattern showed a large-bodied bullish candle with almost no upper wick, indicating strong buyer control and minimal profit-taking as the session approached its close [1].
The primary catalyst for this rally was the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following a joint US-Israeli operation on Saturday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed on Monday, warning that any vessel attempting transit would be targeted [1]. As a result, tanker traffic has dropped to near zero, with at least five vessels damaged and over 150 ships stranded outside the waterway [1]. Major shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all transits, and Iranian drone strikes on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities have taken roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity offline [1]. Iraq has also begun shutting off production as exports through the strait become increasingly constrained [1].
OPEC+ responded by agreeing on Sunday to add 206,000 barrels per day in April, which is above the pre-crisis expectation of 137,000 barrels per day [1]. However, analysts at Rystad Energy noted that this increase is largely symbolic while the strait remains inaccessible, as much of the group's spare capacity is located in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely on Gulf export routes [1]. Goldman Sachs warned that a temporary spike to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points [1]. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, forecast around 60K, adds further uncertainty for traders already wary of market volatility [1].
Technical analysis shows WTI trading at $79.78, with a bullish near-term bias as price extends well above both the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strengthening upside trend structure [1]. The sharp acceleration from the low-$60s has opened a clear topside break from the prior consolidation band, with the Stochastic oscillator signaling strong but stretched upside momentum [1]. While this suggests a risk of a pause or modest pullback, current positioning favors dip-buying interest as long as recent gains hold above former resistance levels [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil's surge above $80 per barrel is driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with OPEC+'s response seen as largely symbolic. Market sentiment remains bullish, but analysts warn of risks to global growth and potential volatility ahead. Traders are closely watching technical levels and upcoming economic data for further direction.