The US Dollar (USD) experienced broad weakness across major currency pairs on Thursday, impacting the forex market significantly. The USD/CHF pair dropped 0.31% to 0.7906 during the North American session, despite verbal intervention efforts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) aimed at depreciating the Swiss Franc. Technical analysis revealed that USD/CHF buyers had pushed the pair to an eight-week high of 0.7957, just above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7951, before retreating towards the 0.79 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests short-term momentum may still favor further gains, but a fall below the 100-day SMA at 0.7897 could open the path to test lower levels, including the 50-day SMA at 0.7800 and the March 6 daily low of 0.7750. The Swiss Franc was strongest against the Canadian Dollar this week, while its performance against the US Dollar was relatively stable, showing a 0.04% change [1].
Meanwhile, AUD/USD advanced 0.47% to hover around 0.7050, buoyed by USD weakness and lower US Crude Oil prices, which fell by 4.21%. The technical outlook for AUD/USD remains bullish above the 50-day SMA at 0.6981, with momentum supported by the RSI. If the pair clears 0.7100, the next targets are the March 18 high at 0.7123 and the yearly high at 0.7187. However, downside risks persist, and a drop below 0.6981 could lead to further declines towards 0.6944 and 0.6900. The article notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the health of the Chinese economy are key drivers for the Australian Dollar, but no specific forward-looking statements or analyst opinions are provided regarding immediate market direction [2].
NZD/USD rose 0.73% to trade around 0.5840, rebounding after a previous decline. This gain came despite disappointing GDP data from New Zealand, which showed 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4, below expectations of 0.4% and a slowdown from the prior quarter's 0.9%. Annual growth was 1.3%, missing forecasts of 1.7%. The New Zealand Dollar's resilience was attributed to the weaker US Dollar, even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained a restrictive stance by leaving rates unchanged and raising inflation projections, signaling only limited rate cuts ahead. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted upside inflation risks, particularly due to elevated energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Analysts at ANZ warned that higher Oil prices could increase near-term inflationary pressures in New Zealand, potentially capping further NZD gains, especially given the Fed's cautious approach to monetary easing [3].
Currency heat maps from both the Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar perspectives confirm that USD was among the weakest major currencies on the day, with NZD showing a 0.73% gain against USD and CHF relatively stable against USD [1][3].
CONCLUSION
The US Dollar's broad weakness drove gains in both AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while USD/CHF retreated despite SNB intervention. Technical indicators suggest potential for further upside in AUD/USD and USD/CHF, though downside risks remain. Market sentiment is moderately positive for commodity-linked currencies, but caution persists due to central bank policies and inflation concerns.