Americans are facing the midnight deadline to file their 2025 tax returns, but this year’s refunds are larger on average than ever before, according to a new analysis by Upgraded Points. The estimated average refund for 2026 is $3,571, with 72.9% of taxpayers receiving refunds, surpassing the previous record set in 2022 of $3,252. However, the share of refund recipients has decreased from 77.1% in 2021 [1].
The increase in refund size follows the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended expiring tax policies and introduced new provisions such as tax relief for income from tips and overtime, Social Security, and an auto loan interest deduction for new, U.S.-made cars. These changes applied nationwide, but IRS data shows that residents in certain states are benefiting more than others [1].
Florida taxpayers are receiving the largest average refunds, with $4,433 after inflation adjustment, out of more than 11.1 million federal tax returns filed. Of these, 67.1% yielded a refund. Texas follows with an average refund of $4,344 from 13.6 million returns, with 71.3% receiving a refund. Wyoming ranks third at $4,282 (68.8% refund rate), Nevada fourth at $4,193 (69.6% refund rate), and Louisiana fifth at $4,117 (73% refund rate, the third-highest among states) [1].
Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., commented, "While Tax Day isn't usually a day for celebration, Americans can rejoice knowing they will likely receive a larger tax return or owe less than in years past. I am proud to have supported the Working Families Tax Cut Package – the largest tax cut in history for working Americans." Moody added, "On average, Floridians will receive the largest average federal tax refunds in the country, keeping hard earned dollars in the pockets of workers, families, and businesses" [1].
The report also notes that county-level data reveals even higher refunds in wealthy enclaves, such as Wyoming's Teton County, home to the town of Jackson [1].
CONCLUSION
Taxpayers across the U.S. are receiving larger refunds in 2026, driven by recent legislative changes. Florida leads the nation in average refund size, with other states also seeing significant increases. This trend is expected to provide a boost to consumer spending and economic activity in the regions benefiting most.