ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang anticipate an upward revision to Japan’s 2025 fourth-quarter GDP, citing stronger winter bonuses and improving real cash earnings as inflation cools [1]. The economists expect the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be revised from the initial 0.1% to 0.3% [1]. This revision is supported by stronger-than-expected capital spending data from the previous week [1]. Producer price inflation is projected to remain stable at 2.2% [1].
Labour cash earnings are expected to rise, driven by robust winter bonuses, and real cash earnings are forecasted to turn positive due to the recent cooling of inflation [1]. The announcement of Japan's 2025 fourth-quarter GDP data is scheduled for next week [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions regarding the immediate impact on financial markets are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
ING expects Japan's 2025 Q4 GDP to be revised upward to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by stronger wages and stable producer price inflation. The outlook is positive, with real cash earnings anticipated to turn positive as inflation cools. Market impact is likely medium, though no explicit reactions are cited.