Standard Chartered strategists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand have revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 (FY27) to 7.2%, up from their previous estimate of 6.6% [1]. This upward revision follows a robust Q1-FY27 GDP growth print of 7.8%, which exceeded both consensus expectations and the strategists' own forecast of 7.3% [1]. The strategists attribute this positive adjustment to continued economic momentum, as indicated by strong high-frequency indicators and supportive activity and sentiment heading into the festival season [1].
For the second quarter of FY27, Standard Chartered now expects GDP growth of 7.4%, compared to their earlier projection of 6.6% [1]. Despite acknowledging potential headwinds such as the adverse impact of El Niño on agricultural output and rural demand, higher inflation, and the diminishing effects of GST cuts implemented from September 2025, the strategists anticipate that growth momentum will remain stronger than previously expected [1].
Looking ahead to the second half of FY27, the forecast has also been revised upward to 6.7% from 6.5% [1]. The strategists note that while some slowdown is expected due to the aforementioned risks, the overall economic outlook remains positive given the strength of recent data and indicators [1].
The report highlights that the revision reflects not only the strong Q1 performance but also the likelihood that supportive factors will persist into the near term, bolstering confidence in India's growth trajectory despite external and domestic challenges [1].
CONCLUSION
Standard Chartered's upward revision of India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% signals strong economic momentum, supported by robust Q1 data and positive high-frequency indicators. While risks such as El Niño and higher inflation remain, the overall outlook is more optimistic than before, suggesting continued resilience in India's economic growth.