USD/CHF Price Forecast: Slumps below 0.7800 after clash on 50-day SMA

Neutral (-0.2)Impact: Medium

Published on March 4, 2026 (4 hours ago) · By Vibe Trader

On Wednesday, USD/CHF retreated by 0.25%, falling below the 0.7800 level after failing to secure a daily close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7819 [1]. The Greenback trimmed some of its gains amid risk aversion, and the pair is now poised to remain near the 0.7800 figure, awaiting a fresh catalyst [1]. Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CHF downtrend remains intact, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. A challenge to the Tuesday daily high of 0.7878 could open the door to test immediate resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7909 [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but has turned downward, aiming for the neutral level, and the second daily close below the 50-day SMA suggests a pullback is likely [1]. On the downside, breaching the Tuesday low of 0.7784 could lead sellers to challenge the 0.7700 figure, with further weakness potentially targeting a key support trendline at around 0.7660-0.7680 [1]. Despite the recent pullback, the US Dollar has been the strongest major currency against the Swiss Franc this week, with a percentage change of 1.20% [1]. The heat map provided shows the US Dollar's relative strength against other major currencies, highlighting its outperformance versus the Swiss Franc [1]. No forward-looking statements or analyst opinions are explicitly mentioned in the article.

CONCLUSION

USD/CHF has experienced a notable pullback, falling below key technical levels and signaling a continuation of its downtrend. Despite this, the US Dollar remains the strongest major currency against the Swiss Franc this week. Market participants are likely to watch for further technical developments and potential catalysts that could influence the pair's direction.

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