MUFG analysts attribute the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen to a combination of deteriorating fundamentals, including a terms-of-trade shock, rising global yields, and increased unhedged foreign equity buying by Japanese households [1]. The analysts highlight that if the Middle East crisis persists, further downside for the Yen is expected, with USD/JPY potentially breaking key resistance and retesting the 2024 high near 161.95 [1].
Since Friday, March 13, Finance Minister Katayama has made five separate statements regarding foreign exchange, signaling government concern over the Yen's level and implying a high threat of intervention [1]. Last Monday, Katayama asserted that recent Yen movements did not reflect fundamentals and that the Ministry of Finance would 'fully respond' to excessive Yen moves [1].
The Yen experienced a brief rebound last Thursday following the Bank of Japan's policy announcement and Governor Ueda's press conference, but nearly the entire move was reversed on Friday. MUFG notes that the speed of this reversal underscores the near-term deterioration in Yen fundamentals, as short-term short Yen positions were liquidated on Thursday due to Governor Ueda not being as dovish as expected [1].
MUFG further points out that the terms-of-trade shock is reducing expectations for a lower USD/JPY, while the Federal Reserve is now priced at only a 50% chance of one rate cut. In contrast, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are priced to potentially deliver three to four 25bp rate hikes, and the Reserve Bank of Australia has already delivered two hikes with three more expected. This divergence in global yields from Japan, coupled with rising hedging costs, reinforces short-term downside risks for the Yen [1]. MUFG cautions that while government rhetoric may temporarily cap Yen weakness, its effectiveness diminishes over time, especially if energy prices rise further this week, which could push USD/JPY through the key level and test the 2024 high of 161.95 [1].
CONCLUSION
MUFG analysts see the Yen's weakness as fundamentally justified and warn of further downside if global conditions, especially energy prices and yield divergence, persist. The threat of government intervention remains, but its impact may be limited. Market participants should monitor energy prices and central bank actions closely, as these factors could drive USD/JPY to retest its 2024 highs.