Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team has updated its outlook for Brent crude oil, citing the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for several more months, with a potential reopening projected for September [1]. The bank emphasizes that this extended closure has significant repercussions for energy markets, including dwindling global inventories, increased competition for alternative supplies at higher prices, and gradually intensifying demand destruction [1].
As a result of these supply disruptions, Rabobank has raised its Brent crude price forecast. The bank now expects Brent to average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, before easing below $100 per barrel throughout 2027 [1]. Rabobank notes that futures markets may continue to overlook the actual supply constraints caused by the prolonged closure, but the physical market is likely to experience tightening conditions and higher prices [1].
The updated forecast reflects Rabobank's view that the energy market will face ongoing volatility and elevated prices as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the situation expected to gradually normalize after a potential reopening in September [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank's revised Brent crude outlook highlights the significant market impact of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, with higher prices expected through 2026. The bank anticipates that energy markets will remain tight until the supply disruption is resolved, projecting a return to lower prices in 2027.