SpaceX has experienced a dramatic decline in market capitalization, erasing more than $1.2 trillion since its peak price of $225.64 in June 2026, which is nearly equivalent to the current market value of Tesla. On July 27, 2026, SpaceX shares fell for the 13th time in the last 16 sessions, closing down more than 1% at $113.50, while Tesla shares also dropped to near one-year lows [1].
In the options market, trading activity has been intense and volatile. On Monday, more puts traded than calls by volume, with 106,000 calls and 77,000 puts exchanged. However, the majority of the $442 million in premium was tied to puts, indicating a bearish sentiment. The most popular contract by volume was the 330-strike call expiring Friday, priced at 10 cents with only a one-third of 1% chance of profitability, according to ThinkOrSwim data. Despite the bearish tilt, four of the five largest trades by premium were neutral or bullish, including significant put-spread selling and a $1.8 million sale involving 5,200 of the 100-strike puts and 7,000 of the 85-strike puts expiring October 16 [1].
Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist at Prosper Trading Academy, commented on the current market environment, stating, "As an investor it's early – as a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex." He also noted that while the upcoming earnings report is typically a volatility-reducing event, it may not have that effect for SpaceX given the current market dynamics [1].
Looking ahead, SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO is scheduled for next week. This event will trigger the release of up to 911.5 million shares, or 20% of eligible locked-up stock, which can be sold on the second full trading day after the earnings release, specifically on August 6. Moon expressed that he does not believe the lock-up expiry will be as detrimental as some fear, but acknowledged it will not be helpful for the stock's performance. Options are currently pricing in a 15% implied move for SpaceX shares post-earnings [1].
CONCLUSION
SpaceX's massive market cap loss and the upcoming earnings report, coupled with the lock-up expiry, are creating significant volatility and uncertainty. While some traders are positioning for a rebound, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with options markets bracing for a substantial move after earnings. The market is closely watching how SpaceX will navigate these pivotal events.