UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, led by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, reported that Indonesia’s trade surplus widened slightly in February 2026 to USD 1.27 billion, marking 70 consecutive months of gains [1]. The report attributes this resilience to strong value-added exports and increased imports of capital goods [1]. However, UOB cautions that Indonesia's trade surplus is likely to narrow in the future due to external risks such as geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions [1].
The downstreaming strategy, particularly in nickel, has delivered tangible results and is recommended to be extended to other commodities including iron & steel, coal, and refined fuels [1]. The Balikpapan refinery is highlighted as providing an additional strategic revenue stream for exports, especially in the aftermath of current Middle East tensions [1].
UOB emphasizes the importance of regional and global trade partnerships, including ASEAN cooperation and reciprocal tariff arrangements, as critical factors for sustaining Indonesia’s trade momentum [1]. Despite ongoing efforts to shift towards higher-value exports, the report underscores that external risks may outweigh these positive developments, potentially leading to a narrowing of the trade surplus [1].
CONCLUSION
Indonesia's trade surplus remains resilient, but UOB warns of narrowing prospects due to geopolitical and supply chain risks. Strategic downstreaming and regional partnerships are seen as vital for sustaining export momentum. The market takeaway is cautious optimism, with external risks posing significant challenges ahead.