Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights that, despite reported progress on a US-Iran understanding, significant risks remain regarding oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments [1]. The agreement between the US and Iran is described as only a brief memorandum, with major details still unclear and conflicting timelines for restoring oil flows [1].
According to Rabobank, while US officials suggest it could take 1-2 weeks to resume energy flows through the strait, maritime experts estimate a longer timeframe of 40-50 days [1]. Additionally, it is noted that it would take weeks for energy cargoes to reach their final destinations even after ships begin to move, due to the backlog caused by the blockade [1]. As of the morning of the report, three Iranian oil tankers and two ships carrying essential goods reportedly passed the US naval blockade [1].
Iran has stated that ships can transit Hormuz freely for a 60-day negotiation period with the US, after which it intends to impose de facto tolls on passage—a move the US opposes and which Rabobank identifies as a significant flashpoint [1]. The bank also raises the question of whether crude carriers will risk returning to Hormuz given the geopolitical uncertainty and the looming deadline [1].
Rabobank further notes that from Iran’s perspective, there is a possibility the deal could collapse within months if Tehran does not receive the benefits promised by the US, as it may have little incentive to keep Hormuz open under such circumstances [1]. The analysis suggests that Iran may prefer to maintain the strategic leverage of the strait rather than allow energy to flow freely while alternative supply chains are developed by the GCC and other parties [1].
CONCLUSION
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, with significant uncertainty over the restoration and future stability of oil flows. Rabobank’s analysis underscores ongoing geopolitical risks and the potential for renewed disruptions, keeping the market outlook cautious.