Standard Chartered analysts Nicholas Chia and Chong Hoon Park report that the USD/JPY currency pair is testing the 160 level, which increases the risk that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may hike rates earlier than their current Q3 baseline expectation [1]. According to new BoJ data, underlying inflation is near or above the central bank's target, and there is a positive output gap, suggesting that the BoJ's policy stance remains accommodative, with the benchmark rate at 0.75%—below the neutral rate range [1].
The analysts note that these indicators imply the BoJ may be falling behind the curve, given persistent inflation and a positive output gap [1]. This situation has contributed to bear steepening in the 2Y/10Y Japanese government bond (JGB) spread since the outbreak of the war, reflecting ongoing inflation risks from higher fuel costs [1]. In contrast, 2Y/10Y spreads in other developed markets have mostly bear flattened as policy rate hikes are priced back in following the recent oil price shock [1].
Market pricing for approximately two BoJ rate hikes by December has remained stable throughout March, despite the heightened risk of an earlier move due to the USD/JPY testing 160 [1]. However, the analysts caution that there is still a high hurdle for the BoJ to meet market expectations of two rate hikes in 2026 [1].
CONCLUSION
The USD/JPY's approach to 160 is increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes, as inflation and a positive output gap persist. While market pricing for two hikes by December remains stable, analysts highlight significant challenges for the BoJ to meet longer-term expectations. The situation is contributing to notable shifts in Japanese bond spreads, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns.