Copper prices have surged above $14,000 per tonne, approaching the all-time high of $14,527.50 set in late January, as supply-side risks continue to dominate the market, according to ING's commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey [1]. The market is characterized by tight refined copper availability, low inventories outside the United States, and ongoing disruptions in key producing regions, making prices highly sensitive to any changes in demand [1].
Firmer spot demand in China and tightening conditions across refined markets are supporting the elevated price levels [1]. However, the strategists note that the current rally is driven more by supply concerns than by underlying consumption, as macroeconomic uncertainty and high oil prices are weighing on demand [1]. They caution that copper remains vulnerable to a price pullback if supply disruptions ease or arbitrage-driven flows normalize [1].
Speculative activity has also intensified, with the latest COTR report showing net long positions in copper rising for a second consecutive week, up by 611 lots to 60,576 lots as of the week ending 8 May—the highest level since December 2025 [1]. Market participants are expected to closely monitor inventory trends, Chinese demand signals, and the impact of geopolitical disruptions on refined metal supply going forward [1].
CONCLUSION
Copper's rally above $14,000/t is underpinned by tight supply, low inventories, and increased speculative positioning, despite demand headwinds from macro uncertainty and high oil prices. The market remains highly sensitive to supply developments, with potential for a pullback if disruptions ease. Investors are likely to focus on inventory levels, Chinese demand, and geopolitical risks in the near term.