Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad emphasizes that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) narrow 5–4 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March 17 meeting has made upcoming labor data pivotal for determining the timing of the next rate hike [1]. Four dissenting members favored a hawkish hold, citing uncertainty about labor market tightness [1].
The consensus for Australia’s March labor force report, due Thursday, anticipates a gain of +17.8k jobs compared to +48.9k in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3%, matching the RBA’s 2026 projection [1]. BBH notes that stronger jobs growth could accelerate expectations for another 25bps rate hike at the May 5 policy meeting, with market pricing currently at 62% for such a move; conversely, weaker data would likely delay the hike [1].
On the currency front, BBH identifies resistance for AUD/USD at 0.7200 and support at 0.7000, suggesting the pair’s movement will be sensitive to the labor report outcome [1].
CONCLUSION
Australia’s upcoming labor report is set to play a decisive role in shaping the RBA’s next policy move, with stronger jobs data likely to increase the probability of a May rate hike. Market participants are closely watching AUD/USD levels and rate hike odds, making the labor report a key event for both monetary policy and currency markets.