DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng anticipates that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will keep its refinancing rate steady at 4.50% through the end of 2026, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance as inflation risks recede [1]. The SBV has already kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.50% in the first half of 2026, and DBS expects this steady approach to continue [1].
The Vietnamese Dong has remained broadly stable against the US Dollar, with a slight appreciation bias, despite periods of regional foreign exchange volatility caused by Middle East tensions and hawkish re-pricing of US Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1]. Headline inflation in Vietnam eased to 4.7% year-on-year in June 2026, moving closer to the SBV's 2026 target of 4.5%, down from above 5% year-on-year in April and May [1].
DBS has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 8.0%, up from 6.5%, citing sustained growth drivers and the central bank's ability to keep monetary policy supportive as inflation pressures diminish [1]. The report notes that while the SBV can afford to maintain its supportive stance, it remains vigilant over currency movements [1].
CONCLUSION
DBS expects Vietnam's central bank to maintain its current refinancing rate through 2026, supported by easing inflation and a stable currency. The upgraded GDP growth forecast to 8.0% signals optimism for Vietnam's economic outlook, with monetary policy likely to remain supportive as inflation risks recede. Market sentiment is positive, reflecting confidence in Vietnam's sustained growth trajectory.