According to Commerzbank, referencing data from Metals Focus, total global gold demand is forecast to decrease by 2% in 2026, reaching 4,177 tons. This decline is attributed primarily to an 11% drop in jewelry demand and a 15% reduction in central bank gold purchases, both of which are being offset by a significant rise in physical investment demand [1]. High gold prices are cited as a key factor curbing jewelry purchases, while a shift in demand toward bars and coins is evident [1].
Physical investment demand is projected to increase by 15%, reaching its highest level since 2013 and, for the first time since data collection began, surpassing jewelry demand [1]. Metals Focus attributes the decline in central bank gold purchases to rising energy prices, which have forced some central banks to intervene in currency markets and sell gold reserves [1].
Despite the overall decline in total demand, both Commerzbank and Metals Focus anticipate a resumption of the upward trend in gold prices during the second half of the year [1]. No specific analyst opinions or forward-looking statements beyond this price outlook are provided in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold demand is shifting, with investment demand rising sharply as jewelry and central bank purchases decline. While total demand is expected to fall slightly, analysts foresee a renewed upward trend in gold prices later in the year.