OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong have identified a technical rebound in the USD/TWD currency pair, attributing the move to broader US Dollar strength and increased risk aversion stemming from the ongoing US-Iran ceasefire stalemate [1]. The pair was last observed at 31.57, with near-term resistance levels noted at 31.60 (100-day moving average) and 31.75 (21 and 50-day moving averages), while support is seen at 31.40/45, 31.20 (2026 low), and 30.90 (200-day moving average) [1].
Despite the current upward pressure, OCBC maintains a preference for fading rallies in USD/TWD, citing robust foreign inflows into Taiwanese equities and a high correlation between the Taiwan Dollar and the tech cycle (TWD-TWSE 30-day rolling correlation greater than 0.90) [1]. The strategists highlight that strong AI-led export momentum continues to support the TWD [1].
Looking ahead, OCBC suggests that if geopolitical tensions de-escalate and the US Dollar weakens, the Taiwan Dollar could see further gains, supported by ongoing foreign investment and the positive tech export outlook [1].
CONCLUSION
OCBC strategists view the recent USD/TWD rebound as a short-term technical move, recommending investors fade rallies due to strong tech sector support and foreign inflows into Taiwan. The outlook for TWD remains positive if geopolitical risks subside and USD strength wanes.