A U.S.-Iran deal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be finalized within days, according to statements from President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi expressed optimism, stating a memorandum of understanding 'could happen within the next 1 or 2 days, or within the next few days' [1]. Trump echoed this sentiment, suggesting the deal could be signed over the weekend or Monday, while also criticizing Tehran for allegedly spreading misinformation about the deal's contents [1]. Pakistan, acting as a key mediator, confirmed that a 'final, agreed upon text' had been reached, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declaring, 'Peace has never been this close as it is now' [1].
The deal is expected to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and restore prewar shipping within approximately 30 days, as well as lift the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports, according to multiple sources familiar with the agreement [1]. The memorandum would also extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and end fighting in Lebanon, where Israel has continued its offensive against Hezbollah despite previous ceasefire agreements [1]. However, there is a discrepancy regarding the terms: while regional sources and diplomats claim the strait will reopen toll-free, Araghchi stated on Iranian state television that Iran intends to charge a service fee for ships passing through, maintaining control over the waterway and keeping its 'sword poised' over the strait indefinitely [1].
The ongoing conflict, which began at the end of February with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, led to Iran imposing strict controls over the Strait of Hormuz—a vital passage for 20% of the world’s oil—causing significant disruption in global markets [1]. Although a ceasefire was agreed in mid-April, intermittent strikes have continued, escalating this week even as diplomatic efforts progressed [1].
Market reaction has been swift: oil prices fell below $90 a barrel Friday morning after Trump indicated a peace deal was imminent. U.S. crude oil futures for July delivery dropped to $84 per barrel early Saturday, while August Brent futures sank to around $87 per barrel [1].
CONCLUSION
The imminent U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has already triggered a notable decline in oil prices, reflecting market optimism for restored stability and shipping flows. While the agreement's terms are still being finalized, discrepancies remain regarding Iran's control and potential fees for passage. Overall, the prospect of peace and normalized trade in the region is viewed as a positive development for global markets.