West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading at $85.75 per barrel, remaining nearly flat after pulling back from Monday’s high of $88.50, as market participants focus on ongoing US-Iran peace talks and the status of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran has agreed to send a delegation to the second round of peace talks with the US in Pakistan, though Tehran threatened to withdraw from the process following the US military's seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz [1]. An anonymous US official told Reuters that 'things are moving forward,' and that US President Donald Trump could attend the talks in person or virtually if a deal is reached [1].
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil supply and nearly 30% of gas production, remains closed, intensifying market concerns [1]. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), described the current US-Israel war against Iran as creating the worst energy crisis in history, surpassing those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined [1].
TD Securities’ James Rossiter notes that oil prices are stabilizing slightly above $90 per barrel, with Brent crude trading in a $90–100 range since the ceasefire began [2]. He observes that market participants appear comfortable with oil at these levels, but uncertainty regarding Middle East developments and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key focus for traders [2]. Rossiter adds, 'Our base case assumption for oil prices to sit slightly above $90/bbl appears to be playing out for now,' and that 'markets seem to be converging on the view that energy prices will settle near their current levels' [2].
Later on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to release its weekly oil report, with market consensus anticipating a 1 million barrel net draw in crude stocks for the week of April 17, following a 6.1 million barrel increase the previous week [1].
CONCLUSION
Oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran peace talks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While WTI trades below $86 and Brent remains range-bound between $90–100, market participants appear to expect prices to stabilize near current levels amid ongoing uncertainty.