The United States Retail Sales data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT, with expectations that retail sales will grow at a stronger pace of 1.4% month-on-month, compared to 0.6% in February [1]. The measure excluding automobiles is also estimated to have risen 1.4% MoM, up from the previous release of 0.5% [1]. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Control Group, which excludes receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile home dealers, and tobacco stores, is seen rising at a moderate pace of 0.2% versus 0.5% in February [1].
Investors are closely watching the US Retail Sales data to gauge the current status of household demand, though the report is expected to have a limited impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook [1]. Ahead of the data release, EUR/USD trades 0.25% lower at around 1.1760, but the near-term trend remains bullish as the pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1690 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1744 [1]. The Relative Strength Index (14) is around 59, indicating positive momentum that reinforces the bullish bias as long as the price stays supported above the mid-range retracement [1].
Technical analysis suggests immediate support for EUR/USD at the 50.0% retracement near 1.1744, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1690 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.1665, with deeper protection at the 23.6% level at 1.1567 [1]. Initial resistance is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1823, with further barriers at the 78.6% level near 1.1936 and the recent cycle high and 100.0% retracement around 1.2080, where bulls may face stronger supply [1].
The Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US dollar, though the article notes that the upcoming release may have limited impact on the Fed's policy outlook [1].
CONCLUSION
US Retail Sales for March are expected to show stronger growth, with investors watching for signs of consumer demand. While EUR/USD trades lower ahead of the release, technical indicators suggest a bullish bias remains intact. The data is anticipated to have only a limited effect on Federal Reserve policy, keeping market impact moderate.