Europe is grappling with a severe jet fuel shortage following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, which has cut off the majority of Middle Eastern jet fuel imports to the continent [1]. Analysts at Societe Generale report that Europe typically requires about 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel per day, with domestic production covering 1.1 million barrels and the remaining 500,000 barrels usually imported—three-quarters of which previously came from the Middle East [1]. The sudden loss of these imports has created an acute logistics problem, forcing Europe to urgently seek alternative suppliers [1].
Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus, stated that while jet fuel is still available, it is insufficient to replace the lost Middle Eastern supply, and Europe must now compete with regions like Singapore and Australia for every available cargo, driving prices higher [1]. The U.S. has emerged as a key alternative supplier, with its global jet fuel exports reaching a record 442,000 barrels per day in early April, up from a five-year average of 172,000 barrels per day [1]. Europe’s imports from the U.S. have surged from a typical 30,000-60,000 barrels per day to about 200,000 barrels per day, yet a deficit of approximately 175,000 barrels per day remains, representing a 53% shortfall from normal Middle Eastern flows [1].
Societe Generale analysts, led by Mike Haigh, emphasized that Europe will need to bid even more aggressively for additional cargoes to maintain summer inventories, highlighting the ongoing competitive and price pressures in the global market [1]. Across Europe’s six largest jet fuel consumers—the U.K., Germany, France, Spain, Turkey, and Italy—domestic output meets only about 63% of their combined demand, underscoring the region’s vulnerability to import disruptions [1].
The market implications are significant, with soaring jet fuel prices, flight cancellations, and supply shortages posing an 'existential' challenge for European airlines as they confront what analysts have called a 'global stress test' [1].
CONCLUSION
Europe’s jet fuel supply crisis, triggered by the loss of Middle Eastern imports due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, has forced the continent into a fierce global bidding war for alternative sources. With prices rising and a substantial supply deficit persisting, the situation presents a major challenge for European airlines and the broader market.