Iran has begun loading crude oil onto tankers for export from the Persian Gulf after the U.S. temporarily relaxed sanctions, potentially allowing Tehran to earn an estimated $8.5 billion in revenue from oil sales [1]. Nikkei analysis indicates a sudden uptick in shipping activity around Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, with the tanker Impalas departing toward the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the increased movement of Iranian oil following the easing of U.S. sanctions [1].
According to Kpler data cited by CNBC, at least 20 oil tankers carrying 35 million barrels, which were not Iranian in origin, have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.–Iran deal opened the sea lane. These ships had been stranded for over three months due to Tehran's closure of Hormuz early in the war, but are now expected to reach their destinations, mostly in Asia, by early August [2]. Confirmed oil shipments through Hormuz have risen to around 4.8 million barrels per day since the deal, marking the highest flows since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. However, exports remain well below prewar levels, which saw 15 million barrels per day exiting the strait [2].
Kpler analysts also report that Iranian oil tankers carrying about 21 million barrels have exited Hormuz in June, and tankers loaded since late April have exited with 51 million barrels this month, though these ships are not of Iranian origin and had their transponders turned off, suggesting the actual figure may be higher [2]. The U.S. Navy lifted its blockade of Iran on June 18, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales through August [2].
The Joint Maritime Information Center has downgraded the threat level for ships crossing Hormuz to "moderate," noting that "an attack is possible but not likely, and overall risk has decreased following the implementation of the U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding" [2]. The International Maritime Organization announced an evacuation plan for more than 11,000 seafarers still stuck in the Persian Gulf, with safety guarantees secured and conditions for safe navigation verified [2]. S&P Global's Dan Yergin commented that "$70-$85 seems like a reasonable range for oil prices" [2].
CONCLUSION
The easing of U.S. sanctions has enabled Iran to rapidly move an estimated $8.5 billion in oil, while overall oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have surged but remain below prewar levels. Security risks have decreased, and market participants are closely monitoring the impact on global energy prices and supply chains. Analysts suggest oil prices may stabilize within the $70-$85 range as exports resume.