The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted Thailand's economy, particularly through rising energy prices and supply chain disturbances [1]. As a net importer of energy and a country reliant on exports, Thailand is experiencing increased oil import costs, which have pushed up transportation and manufacturing expenses [1]. According to the Bank of Thailand, energy-related inflation contributed 0.8 percentage points to headline CPI in May, and forecasts indicate elevated inflation levels through Q3 2026 if global oil prices remain above $85 per barrel [1]. This inflationary pressure has eroded disposable income and consumer confidence, as evidenced by the consumer sentiment index dropping to 69.4 in May from 72.1 in April [1].
Exporters are also under strain, with the Thai baht depreciating to 37.2 per dollar, its weakest level since October 2022, as investors seek safe havens [1]. Although a weaker baht typically enhances export competitiveness, this advantage is offset by higher input costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions. HSBC’s ASEAN research team has revised Thailand’s export growth projections for 2026 downward from 5.2% to 3.4% [1].
In response, Thailand’s private sector is taking proactive measures to adapt. Leading manufacturing groups are exploring alternative suppliers and logistics routes, and leveraging digital platforms for real-time inventory management [1]. Retailers are implementing targeted discounts and loyalty programs to sustain demand amid inflation [1]. Financial institutions are preparing for increased credit demand from businesses seeking working capital [1].
The Thai stock market has experienced heightened volatility, with the SET Index fluctuating between 1,420 and 1,480 over the past month [1]. Investors are monitoring key technical levels, with support at 1,400 and resistance at 1,500; a break above resistance could signal renewed optimism, while a fall below support may raise recession fears [1]. Technical analysis indicates a neutral-to-cautious market sentiment, as moving averages converge and momentum indicators such as RSI hover near 50 [1].
CONCLUSION
Thailand's economy is facing significant headwinds from the post-Hormuz disruption, with rising energy costs, weakened consumer sentiment, and downward revisions to export growth. The private sector's agility and innovation are seen as crucial for recovery, while market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing volatility. Investors and policymakers will be closely watching for signs of stabilization or further deterioration in the coming months.