The U.S. has intensified its oil blockade against Cuba following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Cuba's strategic partner, which began on February 28, 2026 [1]. This blockade, imposed since January after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized in a U.S. military operation, has deepened Cuba's economic crisis, leaving the island facing its most severe test since the collapse of the Soviet Union [1]. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican ally of President Donald Trump, stated 'Cuba's next' in reference to potential U.S. actions, and President Trump previously hinted at a 'friendly takeover' of Cuba, though he did not provide details [1]. These comments, combined with the recent military actions in Iran and Venezuela, have heightened fears in Havana, according to experts [1].
Carlos Solar, senior research fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, suggested that a 'friendly takeover' could mirror the situation in Venezuela after Maduro's removal, where an authoritarian regime remains but moves at the pace determined by the U.S. Solar noted that Cuba has lost support from both Venezuela and Iran at a time of maximum pressure from the Trump administration, but it remains unclear how the U.S. will force the Cuban regime to capitulate [1]. He also stated that there is no evidence of a military buildup similar to the prelude to 'Operation Absolute Resolve' that led to Maduro's capture, indicating the U.S. may approach Cuba differently [1].
The blockade has cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil since the U.S. military operation on January 3, and Cuba reported 32 citizens killed in the attack [1]. President Trump has described Cuba's government as 'an unusual and extraordinary threat' and pledged to impose tariffs on any country supplying Cuba with oil [1]. However, the U.S. Treasury announced late last month that it would allow the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba's private sector, a small step to alleviate the acute fuel shortage that has forced airlines to cut flights to Cuba, impacting tourism—a key revenue source for the government [1].
Cuba's Foreign Affairs Ministry has condemned the joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran and called for an end to the Middle East conflict [1]. Russia has warned that the situation in Cuba is escalating, following an incident where Cuban forces killed four people off its coast in a U.S.-registered speedboat [1]. The White House and Cuba's embassy in London did not respond to requests for comment [1].
CONCLUSION
The U.S. oil blockade and recent military actions have significantly worsened Cuba's economic crisis, with the loss of support from Venezuela and Iran compounding the pressure. While President Trump and allies have hinted at further action, the exact U.S. approach remains unclear, and the situation is escalating, drawing international concern. The acute fuel shortage and reduced tourism are likely to have a high market impact on Cuba's economy.