Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs are trading in tight ranges as investors remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around 1.3360 during the early European session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading calmly near 99.65 as investors await clarity on Iran's intentions regarding a ceasefire, which US President Donald Trump has claimed Iran wants but is afraid to pursue publicly due to internal and external threats [1]. Trump stated, 'They are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly, but they’re afraid to say it because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people,' and added, 'They’re also afraid they’ll be killed by us' [1].
Contradicting Trump's claims, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that the government has not engaged in ceasefire talks with the US and has no plans for negotiation. Iranian state TV reported that Tehran 'would end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met,' and until then would continue fighting across the region. Tehran’s conditions include guarantees of no attacks on Iran, allowance to pursue its missile program, reparations for war, and a toll system on the Strait of Hormuz [1][2].
The EUR/USD pair trades slightly higher around 1.1570 during the late Asian session, as the US Dollar remains subdued. The broader outlook for the USD remains firm given Iran’s refusal of the ceasefire plan. The DXY struggles to extend Wednesday’s upside move above 99.70 [2]. The Euro is trading broadly higher, supported by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s statement that interest rate hikes are possible if inflation proves to be more than temporary: 'If the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted,' Lagarde said on Wednesday [2].
Technical analysis for GBP/USD shows a bearish bias with the pair trading close to the 20-day EMA, which has flattened after a prior decline and now caps the upside around 1.34. The 14-day RSI oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, signaling a pause in bearish momentum. Immediate resistance is at the 20-day EMA near 1.3390, followed by the March 23 high at 1.3480. On the downside, support aligns with Monday's low at 1.3257, with further bearish targets at 1.3220 and 1.31 if broken [1]. For EUR/USD, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as price trades in a Rising Channel pattern, but its placement below the gently declining 200-period EMA around 1.1642 tempers upside conviction [2].
The Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar today, up 0.16%, and gained 0.09% against the US Dollar and British Pound. The GBP/USD pair remained flat, while the DXY was steady, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainty [2].
CONCLUSION
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are keeping major currency pairs in tight ranges, with the GBP/USD showing a bearish bias and EUR/USD mildly bullish but capped by technical resistance. Market sentiment remains cautious, and the US Dollar Index is steady as investors await further clarity on ceasefire developments. The Euro is supported by potential ECB policy adjustments, but overall market impact is medium as uncertainty persists.