Brent crude prices remain capped below $100 as markets reassess the risks associated with the Iran conflict and shift focus toward potential diplomatic solutions, according to DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee [1]. The easing of the 'conflict premium' in oil prices is attributed to receding peak fear, influenced by US domestic political pressure and tentative steps by Tehran to ease constraints at the Hormuz chokepoint [1].
DBS notes that while US-Iran talks are still at a stalemate, the inability of Brent to surge significantly above $100 signals a transition from brinkmanship to hopes for de-escalation and normalization by early summer [1]. As the March 28 deadline for President Trump’s ultimatum approaches, markets are optimistic that the conflict may shift toward diplomatic engagement. Tehran, despite maintaining public defiance, has shown openness to indirect negotiations with the US through intermediaries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Oman [1].
A notable development is Tehran’s decision to grant selective access to vessels from friendly nations like Thailand and China, which has provided a preliminary relief valve for energy markets regarding the Hormuz chokepoint [1]. Market participants are also monitoring global maritime insurers for signs of trade normalization, specifically their willingness to rescind Notice of Cancellation orders and begin underwriting transits for non-hostile vessels [1].
These factors collectively suggest that the risk environment for Brent and broader energy markets may improve into early summer, contingent on further diplomatic progress and normalization of trade flows [1].
CONCLUSION
Brent crude prices are stabilizing below $100 as fears of conflict ease and diplomatic efforts gain traction. Selective vessel access and potential insurance normalization signal preliminary relief for energy markets. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, pending further developments in US-Iran negotiations and trade normalization.