On March 25, 2026, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 5% after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington and Tehran are 'in negotiations right now' and suggested Iran is eager to reach a peace agreement. However, Tehran denied any direct talks with the U.S. [1][2]. International benchmark Brent crude futures dropped nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 5% to $87.65 per barrel [1]. In early Asia trading hours, West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 3.92% at $88.73 per barrel [2].
Trump's comments, made from the Oval Office, indicated he had pulled back from threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure 'based on the fact we're negotiating.' He added, 'They're talking to us, and they're talking sense,' when pressed for further details [1][2]. The New York Times reported that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, delivered through Pakistan, but it remains unclear how widely the proposal has been circulated among Iranian officials or whether Israel would support the plan [1].
Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research, Daan Struyven, highlighted that the current disruption to oil supplies represents the largest shock in decades when measured as a share of global supply, emphasizing the high uncertainty facing markets [1]. The bank noted that crude is trading on a geopolitical risk premium as investors hedge against prolonged disruptions and critically low inventories. Goldman Sachs' base case assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize in April over a four-week period [1].
Asia-Pacific markets responded positively to Trump's remarks, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rising over 1.4%, Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 2.5%, Topix up 2.4%, South Korea's Kospi jumping 2.5%, and Kosdaq up 1.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 24,972 compared to the previous close of 25,063.71 [2]. U.S. stock futures also rose Tuesday night, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 318 points, or 0.7% [2]. However, the S&P 500 index lost 0.37% to end at 6,556.37, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 84.41 points to settle at 46,124.06, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.84% to close at 21,761.89 [2].
CONCLUSION
Trump's comments about potential negotiations with Iran triggered a significant drop in oil prices and boosted sentiment in Asia-Pacific equity markets. Despite Tehran's denial of direct talks, investors responded to the perceived de-escalation, with both commodities and equities reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty. The market remains focused on geopolitical developments and the normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.