Home Depot's comparable sales (comps) have finally caught up to Lowe's after nearly a year of lagging behind, marking a significant development in the home improvement retail sector. In the latest fiscal first-quarter earnings, both Home Depot and Lowe's reported same-store sales growth of 0.6%, a key metric that tracks the performance of their physical locations and websites over time [1]. This parity in comps comes after a period where Home Depot struggled to keep pace with Lowe's, both in sales and stock performance, leading to investor frustration as noted by Jim Cramer [1].
Following the earnings reports, Home Depot shares surged more than 5% for the week, reflecting renewed investor confidence, while Lowe's stock declined by 1.5% due to what was described as underwhelming results [1]. Analyst estimates from FactSet suggest that this parity in comps is expected to continue into the second and third quarters, with projected growth of 0.9% and 1.5% for both companies, respectively. However, Mizuho analyst David Bellinger anticipates that Home Depot will begin to outpace Lowe's in the coming quarters, particularly as the company benefits from recent acquisitions and the lapping of larger financed projects [1].
Home Depot has been aggressively expanding its Pro business, which now accounts for approximately 55% of its sales, compared to 45% from the do-it-yourself (DIY) segment. The company completed its more than $18 billion acquisition of SRS Distribution in June 2024, serving roofing, landscaping, and pool contractors. Additional acquisitions include building materials distributor GMS for over $4 billion in September 2025 and HVAC supplier Mingledorff's last week [1]. Lowe's, traditionally more focused on DIY, is also expanding its Pro reach, having acquired Foundation Building Materials for $8.8 billion in October 2025. According to Bellinger, the impact of this acquisition will start to be reflected in Lowe's comps toward the latter half of the year, as it typically takes about 13 months for such deals to influence results [1].
Despite these strategic moves, the home improvement cycle has not yet turned, largely due to elevated mortgage rates. Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the Club, expressed optimism about Home Depot's Pro exposure, noting it will become more advantageous if and when the home improvement cycle improves, though that shift has not occurred yet [1].
CONCLUSION
Home Depot's achievement in matching Lowe's comparable sales marks a potential turning point in the competitive landscape of home improvement retail. With both companies making significant acquisitions to bolster their Pro businesses, analysts expect Home Depot to gain an edge in the coming quarters. However, broader market improvements remain contingent on a recovery in the home improvement cycle, which is still hindered by high mortgage rates.