Gold has experienced a rebound of approximately 5% following the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, which contributed to easing oil-led inflation and rate shocks, according to Christopher Wong at OCBC [1]. Wong notes that this recovery may lose momentum as the market approaches the upcoming FOMC meeting, with further gains in gold prices contingent on softer oil prices, lower yields, and clear evidence that the Federal Reserve's hawkish repricing has peaked [1].
Key technical levels are highlighted, with resistance at 4,394 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 high to low), 4,450 (200-day moving average), and 4,580 (50-day moving average). Support is identified at 4,200 and 4,024, the latter being a recent low [1]. Wong emphasizes that a sustained recovery above these resistance levels is necessary to ease downside pressure on gold; otherwise, any rallies may be corrective in nature [1].
The market is advised to monitor the FOMC meeting for further clues, as a clear signal that Fed hawkishness has peaked would provide a significant boost to gold prices. Until then, the upside for gold remains dependent on improvements in the external macro environment, particularly regarding oil prices and bond yields [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's recent 5% rebound is at risk of stalling unless there is a clear shift in oil prices, yields, and Fed policy stance. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event for gold's direction, with sustained gains requiring confirmation of a peak in Fed hawkishness and further macro easing.