Both MUFG and Societe Generale analysts highlight the Indonesian Rupiah's (IDR) current stability, attributing it to supportive valuations and Bank Indonesia's (BI) stability-focused monetary policy. MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that valuation metrics such as the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indicate a meaningful undervaluation of the Rupiah against the US Dollar, suggesting scope for a gradual recovery. MUFG maintains a base case for near-term Rupiah stabilization, forecasting USD/IDR at 17,000 by the end of Q2, with expectations for gradual improvement in subsequent quarters as policy support and capital flows strengthen [1].
Societe Generale analysts Kunal Kundu and Galvin Chia report that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% and retained its 2.5% ±1% inflation target, emphasizing a 'stability-first' approach. The central bank sees no urgency to tighten further and is resisting premature easing, prioritizing currency stabilization amid risks from oil prices and ongoing Middle East-related global spillovers. BI's decision to hold rates is framed as consistent with efforts to strengthen currency stabilization in the face of deteriorating global conditions linked to the Middle East conflict [2].
MUFG further observes that active policy intervention and narrowing sovereign CDS spreads have helped suppress FX volatility and slow the pace of USD/IDR gains. Technical analysis from MUFG suggests that USD/IDR is in overbought territory, reducing the risk-reward of chasing further USD upside at current levels. The bank expects stabilization forces to build, supporting a gradual improvement in the Rupiah's performance [1].
Societe Generale adds that BI is betting the recent oil shock is short-lived, given 'on-again, off-again' ceasefire hopes, but is choosing caution due to ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict. The central bank's stance is described as prudent, with a focus on managing external risks while maintaining policy flexibility [2].
CONCLUSION
Both MUFG and Societe Generale agree that the Indonesian Rupiah is supported by undervaluation and a cautious, stability-focused central bank policy. Market sentiment is moderately positive, with expectations for near-term stabilization and gradual improvement in the currency as global risks are managed. The central bank's decision to hold rates and prioritize stability is seen as appropriate given current uncertainties.