WTI Crude Oil prices surged on Monday after peace talks between the US and Iran failed, prompting the US to announce a blockade of Iranian ports starting at 10:00 Eastern Time (14:00 GMT) in an effort to pressure China, Iran's main oil customer since the Revolutionary Guard closed a key waterway responsible for 20% of global oil supply [1]. Despite the jump, WTI remains at $96.79, about $10 below last week's high of $106.73, and is trading halfway through April's range [1].
US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that the ceasefire established two weeks ago is "holding well," which has kept risk aversion limited and prevented WTI from breaking above the $100.00 level [1]. Technical analysis indicates a bullish near-term bias, with the 4-hour RSI above 50 and the MACD line crossing above the Signal line, suggesting bullish momentum is intact [1]. However, price action is forming an expanding wedge, a pattern often seen at major tops, and bulls have been capped at the $98.00 area, below the recent high of $106.73 and the wedge top near $108.00 [1].
On the downside, a bearish reversal could be tested at Friday's highs near $95.00, with key support between $84.00 and $86.00, which aligns with previous lows from March 23, 25, and April 7 [1]. The ongoing ceasefire and hopes for renewed negotiations are limiting risk aversion and keeping prices from escalating further [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI Crude Oil prices have reacted to geopolitical tensions but remain below key resistance levels as ceasefire hopes persist. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, though price action signals caution at major tops. The market is watching for further developments in US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the US blockade on global oil supply.