India and China, two of the world's largest oil importers, are engaged in fierce competition for Russian crude as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks have tightened global oil supplies [1]. The disruption, exacerbated by Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, has led both countries to seek alternative sources, primarily Russian oil, to fill the supply gap [1].
According to Kpler, Chinese imports through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to about 222,000 barrels per day in April, a significant drop from 4.45 million barrels per day before the onset of the Iran war. Similarly, India's supplies through the route fell to 247,000 barrels per day so far this month, down from 2.8 million in February [1]. Both nations are now turning to Russian crude, which is considered a readily available and cheaper alternative, to meet their energy needs [1].
The U.S. renewed a waiver on April 18, allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month, which has temporarily eased pressure on global prices. However, sanctions on Iranian crude remain, with almost 98% of Iranian oil exports going to China and smaller volumes reaching India [1].
India appears more vulnerable to these supply shocks, with oil imports falling in March and a limited buffer of around 30 days against prolonged disruptions, according to oil industry experts. Despite the supply crunch, the Indian government has not raised pump prices, so domestic demand for petrol and diesel remains steady [1]. In contrast, China, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for 45-50% of its crude imports, has stockpiles sufficient for three to four months, positioning it better than most Asian countries. However, China still needs to maintain imports to support its export and petrochemical industries and to bolster strategic reserves in case the conflict drags on [1].
India's reliance on Russian crude has surged, with imports from Russia accounting for 47% (2.14 mbd) of its total 4.57 mbd crude imports in March, nearly double the share from February, when Russia's portion was around 20%. At the same time, India's total oil imports have fallen more than 14% from prewar levels [1].
CONCLUSION
The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified competition between India and China for Russian oil, with both countries seeking to secure alternative supplies amid tightening global markets. While China is better positioned with larger stockpiles, India's vulnerability is heightened by limited reserves and steady domestic demand. The situation underscores the shifting dynamics in global oil trade and the critical role of Russian crude in Asian energy security.