Commerzbank strategists report that Brent crude prices are expected to gradually retreat toward pre-war levels as covert tanker 'dark transits' and diversions help restore oil supply from the Gulf region. According to their analysis, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated to return to normal in the coming quarters, with transit volumes—including 'dark transits'—projected to recover to around 8 million barrels per day by the end of the year and potentially rise to 12 million barrels per day next year [1].
The strategists estimate that, as a result of these covert flows and increased oil production outside the Gulf region (which has risen by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day since the outbreak of the war), approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil—out of the original 20 million barrels per day from the Gulf—could reach the global market. This would reduce the remaining supply shortfall to about 5.8 million barrels per day [1]. Should oil transits increase further to 12 million barrels per day next year, the supply gap could narrow to less than 2 million barrels per day, which Commerzbank believes would have little significance for the global oil market overall [1].
As a result, Commerzbank expects oil prices to ease in the coming quarters and return to near pre-war levels by the middle of next year. However, they note that prices for petroleum products and natural gas are likely to remain above their pre-war levels in the coming quarters [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank forecasts a gradual normalization of Brent crude prices as covert tanker flows and increased non-Gulf production restore global oil supply. While oil prices are expected to return to pre-war levels by mid-next year, petroleum products and natural gas prices may remain elevated in the near term.