West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, opened with a modest gap-up on Monday and is currently trading just above $92.00, marking a daily gain of over 0.80% [1]. The market is being driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports [1]. Trump further indicated that additional military strikes on Iran could occur before the US midterm elections, which has prompted traders to price in a geopolitical risk premium [1]. Continued attacks by the Houthis in Yemen and Iran on Saudi Arabia have also heightened concerns about regional supply flows, providing additional support to crude oil prices [1].
Peace negotiators are reportedly pressing Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the US, and Trump stated that US negotiators may engage in further talks with Iran this week, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war that began in February [1]. Despite these developments, the underlying bullish tone of the US Dollar, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October and elevated US bond yields, is limiting any significant upside for WTI [1].
Preliminary data from Kpler shows that crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest level since the Iran war started [1]. This rebound in exports suggests that traders are waiting for stronger follow-through buying to confirm that the recent corrective pullback from the highest level since May 20 has ended [1]. Additionally, market participants are expected to await the release of China's official PMIs on Wednesday before making fresh directional bets on crude oil [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $84.96, with prices trading above key Fibonacci retracement levels at $84.44 (50.0%) and $88.59 (38.2%), indicating underlying demand on dips [1]. The next resistance is at the 23.6% retracement level at $93.72, with a break above this exposing the structural high zone at $102.01. Immediate support is seen at $88.59, followed by the 100-day SMA at $84.96 and the 50.0% retracement at $84.44, forming a broad demand zone if a pullback occurs [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices are holding steady above $92 amid heightened geopolitical risks and supply concerns in the Middle East. While technical indicators suggest underlying demand, traders remain cautious, awaiting further developments in US-Iran negotiations and key economic data from China. The market is likely to remain sensitive to both geopolitical and macroeconomic signals in the near term.