U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday, November 10, 2026, that the war with Iran could end "fairly soon," citing military destruction and economic collapse as key factors driving potential resolution [1]. Trump told reporters at the White House following a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani that "We're seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict," and noted that Iran was "talking very politely" with Washington [1]. He emphasized that "Iran militarily is effectively over" due to destruction of its navy and surging inflation that has weakened its economy [1].
Regionally, Trump indicated that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait prefer maintaining the status quo, which includes sustaining a naval blockade against Iran and "Operation Iron Gate"—a task force announced Saturday designed to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons [1]. While Trump reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and stated America is "docked and loaded" for potential strikes, he characterized new military action as "quite unlikely" [1]. A diplomat briefed on the Qatar meeting told Axios that Trump expressed willingness to pursue negotiations but warned he could reverse course if Iran does not engage seriously [1].
On the diplomatic front, Iran has submitted a two-day proposal to the U.S. through Qatari mediators demanding sanctions relief and a new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington reviewing the proposal according to Reuters [1]. However, Iranian officials have disputed that formal talks are underway, with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, claiming Washington should stop "manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks" [1]. The conflict, now in its ninth month, has driven significant fuel price increases affecting global economic sectors [1].
Oil markets responded positively to de-escalation prospects, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropping over 1% to $85.8 per barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous day's 4% decline [1]. Brent futures fell more than 1% to $91.56 per barrel, hovering near 10-week lows [1]. The Trump administration has notably toned down war rhetoric following midterm election results where Republicans lost both chambers of Congress, with voters expressing frustration over soaring living costs stemming from the conflict [1].
CONCLUSION
Trump's statements suggesting an imminent end to the Iran conflict, combined with acknowledgment of Iran's military and economic deterioration, have shifted market sentiment toward de-escalation, resulting in oil price declines. However, contradictory signals from Iranian officials disputing active negotiations and Trump's caveat that strikes remain possible if talks fail introduce uncertainty into the outlook. The medium market impact reflects both the positive oil price response and lingering geopolitical risks that could reverse the de-escalation trajectory.