Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team reports that the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in 2026, a trend attributed to three rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year [1]. The analysis highlights that the AUD, alongside the Norwegian Krone (NOK), has benefited from the swift shift away from dovish central bank guidance that persisted into the end of last year [1].
However, the report notes that recent softer Australian economic data has caused the AUD to lose some momentum, suggesting that the RBA's rate hiking cycle may be nearing its peak [1]. Rabobank expects one more rate hike from the RBA, likely in August, aligning with market consensus [1]. The bank also points to ongoing uncertainties regarding growth and inflation, which could lead to further currency movements in the coming weeks and months, but maintains that the Australian economy and the AUD remain relatively well positioned [1].
In terms of currency pairs, Rabobank observes that after a correction lower last month, AUD/NZD appears to have stabilized [1]. The bank forecasts a move higher in AUD/USD over a 3-to-12-month horizon and expects EUR/AUD to trade within a range in the coming months [1]. For GBP/AUD, Rabobank anticipates downside over the next 3–6 months and suggests selling into rallies [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond Rabobank's forecasts are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank sees the Australian Dollar as having performed strongly in 2026, but notes that softer domestic data may signal the end of the RBA's rate hiking cycle. The bank expects one more rate hike, likely in August, and projects a higher AUD/USD and downside for GBP/AUD in the medium term. Overall, the AUD is viewed as relatively well positioned despite near-term uncertainties.