The core event across all three sources is the release of weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which showed a decline of 92,000 jobs compared to expectations for a 59,000 increase [1][2][3]. The previous month's NFP was also revised lower to 126,000 from 130,000 [1][3]. The US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% [1][2][3], and the Labor Force Participation Rate edged down to 62% [3]. Despite the weak headline jobs data, Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, beating expectations and indicating persistent wage pressures [1][2][3].
The market reaction was significant. The US Dollar weakened against both the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc. USD/CAD fell nearly 0.45% to around 1.3607, its lowest level in three weeks, as the Canadian Dollar was further supported by surging oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose over 30% for the week, trading near $88.75 per barrel, with warnings from Qatar’s Energy Minister that prices could reach $150 per barrel if Gulf exports are halted [1]. The Canadian Ivey PMI also showed a strong rebound to 56.3 in February from 47, signaling a return to expansion in Canadian business activity [1].
USD/CHF dropped 0.44% to around 0.7780, as the Swiss Franc benefited from safe-haven demand amid both the weak US labor data and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Swiss National Bank reiterated its readiness to intervene to prevent excessive CHF appreciation [3]. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 99.00, reflecting a balance between weak economic data and safe-haven flows, though source [1] notes the DXY was still on track for a weekly advance due to geopolitical risk [1][3].
Gold prices surged over 1% to near $5,140 as investors sought safety, though the metal was still set to end the week down nearly 2.5% due to earlier US Dollar strength and rising Treasury yields [2]. The weak NFP data led traders to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with market pricing for 43 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from 35 basis points the previous day [2]. Several Fed officials commented on the data: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted businesses are not hiring, Governor Stephen Miran cautioned against overreacting to one month’s data, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called the report disappointing but advocated holding rates steady for now [2].
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is busy next week, with key releases including inflation data, housing figures, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index [2]. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the March 17-18 meeting, with attention on the updated Summary of Economic Projections [2].
CONCLUSION
The weaker-than-expected US jobs report triggered a broad risk-off move, weakening the US Dollar against safe-haven and commodity-linked currencies, and boosting gold prices. Market participants increased bets on Fed rate cuts, while geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices added to volatility. The market impact is high, with attention now turning to upcoming US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.